The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020.

Møller H¹, Fairley L, Coupland V¹, Okello C¹, Green M, Forman D, Møller B, Bray F.
¹King's College London, Thames Cancer Registry, 42 Weston Street, London SE1 3QD, UK

British Journal of Cancer (2007) 96, 1484-1488

We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974-2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic countries. We predict that for all cancers combined there will be relatively little change in age-standardised incidence rates in 2020. The number of new cancer cases per year in England is, however, predicted to increase by 33%, from 224,000 in 2001 to 299,000 cases in 2020. This increase is mainly due to the anticipated effects of population growth and ageing; cancer patients in 2020 will be older than today's cancer population.

MEDLINE abstract